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Current | Special Report Archives The Bush Economic Record: Will Short-Term Gain Lead to Long-Term Prosperity or Long-Term Pain?Get the full report. The latest growth numbers have inspired comparisons by the White House of the "Bush recovery" of 2003 to the Reagan recovery of 1984, which Reagan rode all the way to re-election. ("Where's the Beef?" just didn't translate from burger slogan to political slogan.) While the White House touts the 7.2% third quarter GDP growth figure, experts are cautious. Economists are questioning whether the great news of last week genuinely represents the beginning of long-term job growth, as promised, or a temporary positive blast to be followed by more stagnancy on the jobs front. Early indications are that while tomorrow's unemployment picture will reveal a net positive gain, it will still fall far short of what's needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, or to truly begin to move the economy from recovery to prosperity. (See "Productivity Rises in 3rd Quarter; Weekly Jobless Claims Fall," Associated Press, 11/6/03) The President, of course, doesn't have control over much of the economy's performance. What Bush and his administration do control is how they spin the effects of their policies. And on this score, the President spin machine has inspired the creation of the Mis-Leading indicators. (http://www.misleader.org/pdf/misleading_indicators.pdf) Regardless of the President's unshakable message of happy days around the corner, the reality is that the Bush tax cuts have been an ineffective form of stimulus. The majority of Bush's tax cuts goes to the wealthy, and the wealthy pocket most of their tax breaks, unlike middle and lower-economic families. In particular, the 2003 "Jobs and Growth" package was heavily front-loaded (more so after it made its way through Congress) to encourage stimulus up front. That stimulus is now fading. While the short-term jolts of the "Jobs and Growth" plan fade, what's left is a decline in real wage growth and, more importantly, increased deficits that many experts worry are now structural in nature. On the eve of the release of October's unemployment figures, the positive growth numbers belie many other indicators that suggest we are not on the road to recovery. Get the full report. |
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